Unfolding ocean power solutions potential for electricity generation using project drawdown framework [2022]


#OCEAN POWER#ELETRICITY GENERATION

By:

Luís Zilhão


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This thesis addresses the potential of ocean power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, considering its total net costs and operational savings at a European Union level. Such emissions are the leading cause of global warming. A significant shift in policies is therefore needed if countries are to comply with the emissions reduction targets defined in the meantime. A powerful tool to help tackle this endeavor is modeling future energy scenarios. Project Drawdown organization assesses multiple climate solutions and presents a methodology allowing researchers to compare new electricity generation technologies with conventional ones along various parameters. The present work displays projections regarding the future of the electricity generation market and the adoption of ocean power technologies. These ocean power adoption projections are based on peer-reviewed publications and institutional reports and refer to the period 2021-2050. Using Project Drawdown’s framework, these projections are coupled with emissions, financial and technical data to model the potential of ocean power solutions for electricity generation and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union up to 2050. Finally, sensitivity analyses are carried out to understand how the financial variables’ behaviour may affect the results. The results obtained in this work show that ocean energy may generate 33 to 170 TWh by 2050 while replacing conventional electricity generation technologies. These figures account for 0.59%-3.05% of the total generation of the European Union electricity system by 2050. In terms of financial competitiveness, the results obtained show marginal costs to vary from 19.1 to 60.8 Billion =C, net operating savings to vary from -17.2 to -84.0 Billion =C , and lifetime operating savings vary from -42.0 to -214.5 Billion =C . The total emissions reduction for the period under analysis is expected to range from 0.16 to 0.81 Gt CO2-eq well below the potential of other renewable energy sources as solar or wind power.


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Citation : Zilhão, L. (2022). Unfolding ocean power solutions potential for electricity generation using project drawdown framework. Master Thesis in Renewable Energy Engineering. NOVA School of Science and Technology. NOVA University of Lisbon.

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