Analysis of the Future of Hydropower Technologies in the European Union using Project Drawdown Framework [2022]


#HYDROPOWER#ELETRICITY GENERATION

By:

Francisco Vieira


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Climate change is an undeniable problem, and the solutions available to fight it need to be deeply understood. Along with other institutions, Project Drawdown is one of the leading fronts in research and resources about climate solutions. Its global analysis in 2017 and 2020, followed by regionalization efforts in the US and Europe, are critical pieces of this understand-ing and contextualization of climate change solutions in multiple sectors. This study aims to understand the contribution that large and small hydropower solutions can have in climate change mitigation in Europe and EU, specifically in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, associated costs and its role in future developments of the electricity generation industry, one of the biggest GHG emitters. The methodology is supported by extensive data collection of electricity generation pro-jections (TWh) and key characteristics of the hydropower technologies. The results show that the electricity generated in Europe will grow in every studied scenario. However, the extent of this growth varies a lot along with the different scenarios from the various publications due to different models used, main socio-economic and technological assumptions. When it comes to the portion of that generation that is accomplished by hydropower, the results show a trend of stabilization or slight growth in some scenarios, with the future of these technologies laying essentially in repowering and improvements in existing powerplants and not in the building of new ones. Environmentally and financially, the findings suggest that large hydropower can bring a reduction of emissions between 1,8-2,5 Gt of CO2eq in its most likely scenarios with average savings in O&M and from lack of fuel costs close to 253 billion euros, while small hydro can contribute with a reduction of up to 0,9 Gt of CO2eq but presenting a net cost of about 300 billion euros, in comparison with the implementation of conventional technologies. At the same time, showing the need for improvement of the technology for it to play a significant role in climate change mitigation in the region.


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Citation : Vieira, F. (2022). Analysis of the Future of Hydropower Technologies in the European Union using Project Drawdown Framework. Master Thesis in Renewable Energy Engineering. NOVA School of Science and Technology. NOVA University of Lisbon.

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